Quantifying the Extent to Which Junior Performance Predicts Senior Performance in Olympic Sports – A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The predictive validity of junior performance for later success in senior-level sport remains a key question in talent identification systems. In Olympic sports, early performance results are frequently used to select and invest in athletes assumed to have long-term potential. In a systematic review and meta-analysis published in Sports Medicine, Barth et al. (2024) examined whether junior athletic performance reliably predicts senior-level performance outcomes. The study analyzed a large body of longitudinal data across multiple Olympic disciplines to quantify this relationship and test its consistency across sport types, age groups, and performance contexts.

Summary of Key Aspects

The review included 129 effect sizes drawn from 21 studies, with a total sample of 13,392 athletes (62% male). The meta-analysis covered a broad range of Olympic sports and performance measures (both continuous and binary), and controlled for variables such as sex, sport type (CGS, game, combat), sample region (national vs international), and junior age category.

The overall correlation between junior and senior performance was r = 0.148, indicating that only 2.2% of the variance in senior performance could be explained by junior-level results. When broken down by junior age category, the relationship declined with younger cohorts:

• Junior A (17–18 years): r = 0.215
• Junior B (15–16 years): r = 0.128
• Junior C (13–14 years): r = –0.024
• Junior D (11–12 years): r = –0.052

No significant differences were found in correlation strength based on sex, sport type, performance measure type, or sample region. However, a notable difference appeared regarding data source: studies using public records reported higher correlations (r = 0.177) than those based on athlete questionnaires or interviews (r = 0.020).

All included studies were rated as high quality using the MMAT, and publication bias was ruled out through standard funnel plot and Egger’s test analyses.

Conclusions and Practical Applications

The findings demonstrate that junior performance offers limited predictive value for senior-level outcomes in Olympic sports. Even in the oldest junior group (17–18 years), where the association was strongest, the correlation remained modest. In younger groups, the relationship was negligible or negative. These results suggest that using early performance data as the primary basis for long-term projection may not be justified.

The authors conclude that selection models “based primarily on early success” may exclude athletes who develop later and fail to capture the complex, non-linear nature of long-term athlete development. They propose that athlete development programs be re-evaluated considering these findings.

For coaches, sport scientists, and federation decision-makers, the study reinforces the need to use longitudinal monitoring and multidimensional evaluation methods rather than relying solely on early competitive results. While junior performance remains a visible and accessible metric, its low predictive validity highlights the importance of caution in using it to make high-stakes decisions about athlete support or future investment.

Reference

Barth, M., Güllich, A., Macnamara, B. N., & Hambrick, D. Z. (2024). Quantifying the extent to which junior performance predicts senior performance in Olympic sports: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Sports Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-023-01906-0